Showing posts with label {prltitle}. Show all posts
Showing posts with label {prltitle}. Show all posts

Monday, February 24, 2014

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There is much made of the fact that a bad credit history can be detrimental when it comes to buying a home. Traditional lenders, like banks, would have us believe we stand no chance, but options do exist. In fact, there are specially-formulated home mortgage loans for people with bad credit histories.

Many of these mortgages are available from online lenders, whose loan packages are more affordable and involve less in the way of fees and even charge interest rates. But perhaps most crucial is the fact that credit scores have no bearing on the application process, thereby ensuring a better approval chance.

For almost everyone, a home mortgage loan is the largest single personal debt they will take on, which explains the nervousness with which many approach them. But there are some secrets to preparing an application that can help to improve the chances of approval.

Be Proactive About Your Credit Score

This is most useful when applying to traditional lenders in particular, who usually place a large significance on the scores when assessing applications and the rate of interest to charge. While it is true that home mortgage loans for people with bad credit are already well structured, improving the credit score just a little can further improve the deal.

The most common proactive step is to take out a small personal loan, repay it without a hitch, raise the score a little and so ensure a better approval chance when it comes to the mortgage. A series of small loans, such as payday loans, means this can be done several times over a set period - perhaps 5 or 6 ,000 loans over 12 months.

With each loan cleared, the credit rating is improved, which in turn improves the terms of a home mortgage loan. However, this tactic does require some time and patience.

Make a Large Down Payment

Making a larger down payment than is necessary send the message that an applicant is serious about taking on such a large debt. The significance of such a move is even more poignant when it comes to home mortgage loans for people with bad credit histories.

The reason is two-fold. Firstly, the size of the mortgage is lowered because a larger share of the purchase price is paid off. A 5% down payment on a property worth 0,000, only reduces the mortgage to 7,500. But a 20% down payment reduces it to 0,000, Unsurprisingly, the result is a much better approval chance.

Secondly, if a down payment of 20% (,000) is made, then the financial discipline needed to save that lump sum cannot be ignored. Lenders are only too happy to grant a home mortgage loan to someone so committed.

Think Outside the Box

Finally, thinking outside the box can result in more creative financing that will drastically improve the strength of the application. Being a person with a bad credit rating does not guarantee approval for a home mortgage loan for people with bad credit.

Creative financing can see the mortgage sum split into individual loans that may not only result in a better approval chance, but in the overall debt being reduced. For example, after a down payment of 10%, the mortgage sum required is 5,000. This could be borrowed through 0,000 mortgage over 30 years, and a ,000 personal loan over 3 years.

While the size of the home mortgage loan is reduced, the personal loan repayments can be lower than the mortgage repayments. So, monthly repayments of 0 will lift the pressure over the first 3 years before the mortgage repayments begin, which may be as high as ,200.

Saturday, February 22, 2014

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There are many people that are not aware of the fact that there are quite a number of different nurse uniform that are floating around out there. Knowing the many different types and styles can help you in either choosing or buying them for someone you know.

With so many different styles and designs out there to choose from, you may need some advice on where to start. Well, the best place to start with this is to actually ask those above you, or your superiors, what type you will be required to wear. Sometimes you have many choices in what you can wear, but there are quite a few places that have restrictions on things like color, design, and style.

The most common type of nurse outfit are scrubs. Scrubs are the most stylish and comfortable of all types of nurse uniforms. The design of scrubs is to make them both simple and fashionable. They come in many different colors and designs for all types of work. If you plan on being around children mostly, you can find scrubs with childlike designs such as teddy bears, lollipops, and smiley faces.

Another form of nurses uniform are the traditional white dresses. These dresses are not worn as much as they were years ago, but in many places, this is still preferred. The dresses were supposed to be designs to represent status and hygiene.

For men, there may be a choice of a uniform. The main type of uniform is much like a scrub, but usually a navy blue color is preferred. The only different is that the shirt would be a tunic-style. This was something that was developed as a way to prevent any infections. Sometimes there are color accents on these tops to represent a mans professional grade.

There are many places that you can go looking for them. Most of the time you can find some such as lab coats and scrubs in your local department stores or super centers. These places usually carry styles that have childlike designs or are completely plain in different solid colors.

Another place that you can choose to look for them online. Online stores give you many more options than what are available in stores. The great thing about ordering online is that there are usually specials on things like scrubs, no matter what store you decide to buy from. Just think of your specific field that you are in and you will know exactly what category to look for online. Be sure to look at all the stores first before ordering so you will know what each store carries.

When choosing a nurse uniform you just have to be sure of what you want and what you know you can wear. Although many styles may seem great and you may want them, you need to be sure that they are okay to wear in your work setting. Thinking about this ahead of time is a great way to make your search easier.

Wednesday, February 19, 2014

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Many people automatically associate Medicare with seniors and for the most part, that assumptions pretty correct but not entirely. There's a whole other category of people for whom Medicare is life send for them and they may not be close to age 65. Medicare is also available to people who have been deemed permanently disabled according to Social Security rules. Let's take a look at what is commonly referred to as pre-65 Medicare for the permanently disabled and also understand how Medicare supplement insurance plans conform to this less typical eligibility.

Permanently and totally disabled is the official term that Social Security uses to described someone who is then eligible for various benefits including Medicare prior to age 65. The "Permanent" part of the equation is important since a temporary situation will not make you eligible. It must be a situation that not only will not change but prohibits you from returning to the workforce in any meaningful way. This is the only way to get Medicare prior to age 65. Disability coverage was added in 1956 with the Social Security Disability Insurance (or DI for Short) and it was one of the largest expansions of the original Medicare plan and eligible base since the original plan was launched in 1935.

It's important if you are permanently disabled (which is a process undertaken through your local Social Security office) to make sure to follow their instructions to the letter especially in terms of time tables and requirements. You do not want to be in a situation where you did not submit paperwork (say to elect Part B) in a certain window and will therefore have to wait for a period of time before Medicare is available to you. We get these calls frequently and it's always disheartening since there's not much we (or the applicant) can do and quite frequently, the pre-65 disabled member has significant health issues and no other insurance. Unless they had existing coverage (pre-65 individual/family or group based coverage), they will likely not be able to qualify for other coverage except for maybe PCIP, the Federal pre-existing condition plan for people without prior coverage for at least 6 months. There are four important parts to make sure transpire smoothly for pre-65 Medicare. First, is your designation of permanently and totally disabled. Secondly, you want to make sure your Part A for Medicare is installed. You also want to make sure your Part B (physician costs with Medicare) is opted (much be elected voluntarily) within a certain time constraint from Part A and disabled status dates. Finally, you need to make sure to apply for your chosen Medicare supplement insurance plan and Part D for medication within a certain time from Part A/Part Medicare enrollment.

This bring us to our discussion of Medicare supplement insurance for pre-65 disabled people. Although the Medicare supplement insurance plans are standardized by the government so that an F plan is an F plan, whether over or under age 65, there can be some differences. For one, some carriers may not offer a full range of the plans available under Medicare. For example, they may only have the F plan. The rates can be different for pre-65 Medicare supplements as well than for over age 65. It's important when researching everything you need to do for pre-65 Medicare with disability that you deal with an experience Medicare Supplement broker and really compare the medigap plans and quotes available to you.

Dennis Jarvis is a licensed insurance agent concentrating on medicare supplement insurance. Find more articles and guidance about medigap plans.

Dennis Jarvis is a licensed insurance agent concentrating on medicare supplement insurance. Find more articles and guidance at

Monday, February 17, 2014

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Shooting in Monochrome
To give a contemporary photo an old-fashioned feel, try shooting in monochrome. A picture done entirely in black and white or sepia tones achieves on old time look. Rather than editing the picture through a computer program, many digital cameras feature a setting that enables you to actually shoot the images directly in monochrome.

The monochrome setting option simplifies the process of creating these stunning pictures. No software or special knowledge of photo editing is required to produce these stunning images. Depending on what type of digital camera you have, the monochrome setting will be located in the My Colours, Colour or Picture Style settings menu.

Types of monochrome settings
Once you've located the monochrome setting, you will see that you have different options. Black and white and sepia settings are offered by most digital cameras. Colour monochrome settings, such as green and blue, are included in some cameras as well. The more advanced cameras enable you to enhance the monochrome mode with various coloured filters. These filters allow you to achieve a number of effects. For instance, you can recreate the effect of a red filter over black and white film. Also, any colours in the subject that are the same colour as the filter can be selectively lightened.

Choosing a setting
Consider the emotion you want the photo to evoke. Sepia tones create a different feel than black and white, and vice versa. For example, a sepia-toned image will present a softer look, reminiscent of antique photos. Black and white, on the other hand, is ideal for photographing strong structural elements for stark contrasts.

Choosing your subject
Landscapes and city scenes tend to feature strong structural elements, such as buildings. Shadows actually enhance these subjects. Sunlight casts the lines and angles with dramatic patterns. To record the most detail possible, use an ISO setting of 200 or less. Low ISO settings best capture the shadows and structures that make for striking monochrome photos.

Gentle, more romantic settings also lend themselves well to monochrome mode. A dream-like or nostalgic mood can be evoked through monochrome photography. Subtle nuances emerge through the variations in tone.

Portraits, of both pets and people, are excellent subjects for monochrome photographs, particularly those done in black and white. You can vary the effect by changing the lighting. Soft light minimises the appearance of blemishes. Directional lighting, lighting which emanates from a single source, accentuates facial features.

Tips for shooting in monochrome
As explained above, the monochrome setting directly captures monochrome images. No colour information is recorded. While colour photos can be made monochrome with computer software, a photo taken in the monochrome setting cannot be reverted to colour. That is, unless you take the pictures in RAW format.

Try using your digital camera's flash, whether inside or outside, when taking monochrome photos. Although the flash might washout an image taken in colour, that same flash can cast desirable dramatic shadows in monochrome.

Experiment with the different filters before you start taking photos. Your efforts will be better directed if you first know the effect that each filter achieves.

This article was brought to you by Canon Australia - Helpful photography tips

About Canon

Canon Australia is a leading provider of advanced, simple-to-use imaging solutions for businesses and consumers. Canon's Australian R&D company, CiSRA, develops customised solutions for local customers, and exports digital imaging technologies for use in Canon products worldwide. Canon has ranked among the top-three US patent recipients for the past 16 years, and had global revenues of around $ US39 billion in 2007. Canon Australia also operates Canon Finance Australia, which offers one-stop shopping for customers wanting leasing or finance services. For more information, visit canon.com.au.

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If you are in the market to lease a vehicle, you will hear the term residual value recur like a leitmotif. A residual value does not only affect your monthly payments, but is equally used by leasing companies to determine any penalties should you break your lease early and how much to pay if you decided to buy the vehicle at the end of your lease.

Let us first start by looking at the meaning of residual value. The term residual value, refers to the value of something after it has been used for some time. In leasing lingo, it refers to the depreciation of the vehicle's value over the life of its lease. So how does it exactly affect your monthly payments? When you lease a car, you pay for the car's value that you use over the lease length. Suppose you leased an ,000 car for 2 years: the leasing company needs to estimate the value of this car in two years time in order to know how much of the car you will be using during your lease term. That's where the residual value comes into the equation. If the residual value is estimated to be ,000 at the end of your lease, then your monthly payments will be calculated on the ,000 you will use over 24 months, giving an average monthly payment of 8.3 (plus interest, tax and fees). How about if the car is expected to lose half its value over the same period? In this scenario, you will be using ,000 over the same period, leaving you with a higher monthly payment of 5 (plus interest, tax and fees). As you can see, residual values are a key factor in determining how much money to pay on your lease and the higher the residual value, the lower your monthly fees. This works in reverse if you build a bond with your car and decide to purchase it at the end of your lease. If we stick with the same example above, the lower monthly payments in the second scenario come at the cost of paying substantially more to buy your car at the end of the lease.

So, since the residual value is so important, how do I know which one is best for me? Well, it all depends whether you want to purchase the car at the end of your lease. If you don't want to make a large down payment and you want low monthly payments, then a car that holds with a higher residual value is a good deal. If you are thinking of purchasing the car at lease-end, then you need to balance low-monthly payments with a moderate residual value.

Sunday, February 16, 2014

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American Express and Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide, Inc. launch the Starwood Preferred Guest Business Credit Card for small business owners and the enhanced Starwood Preferred Guest Credit Card for consumers.

Cardmembers can take advantage of greater benefits and richer rewards, making it easier than ever for consumers, and now small business owners, to earn free nights at more than 825 Starwood hotels and resorts around the world and award flights with more than 30 airline partners.

Credit Card Features:

10,000 Starpoints bonus with first purchase ? enough for up to three free nights(1)

Double Starpoints on stays at participating Starwood Hotels & Resorts and purchases at select Starwood retail outlets, such as Bliss Spa and more(2)

Automatic upgrade to Gold Preferred Guest membership status by spending ,000 on the Card in each calendar year. Access to private sales with select Starwood retail outlets.

The new Business Card incorporates all of the improved benefits of the Starwood Preferred Guest Credit Card, as well as programs and services tailored specifically to the needs of small business owners, including the OPEN Savings(SM) program which was designed specifically for small businesses and gives automatic discounts on purchases at OPEN Savings(3) partners, such as Delta, FedEx Kinko's and JetBlue. In addition, the Business Card provides expense management reporting, an online spend tracking system and spending limits on additional cards that aid in better managing employee spending.

Credit Card Benefits:

One (1) Starpoint for every eligible dollar spent on the Card

Redeem Starpoints at over 825 participating Starwood hotels and resorts in 95 countries with no black out dates? if there's a standard room it's yours.

Transfer Starpoints to over 30 frequent flyer programs, most on a one-to-one basis

Receive 5,000 Starpoint bonus when you transfer 20,000 Starpoints to miles(4)

First year fee-free, and annual fee thereafter; fee-free additional cards

Automatic enrollment as a Starwood Preferred Plus member

Receive a 50% off certificate, good towards a Starwood hotel stay, upon Card approval and annual renewal

No limit on the amount of Starpoints a Cardmember can earn

Competitive Introductory purchase Annual Percentage Rate (APR) for six (6) months

Retail and travel protections such as Global Assist, Car Rental Loss & Damage Insurance, Purchase Protection Insurance, Travel Accident Insurance, American Express Card Baggage Insurance, Buyers Assurance Plan, Express Cash Emergency Card Replacement, Emergency Check Cashing, and 24-hour customer service.

The new Starwood Preferred Guest Business Card and enhancement to the Consumer Card are an expansion of the existing relationship between Starwood and American Express. The new Cards make it easier than ever for consumers and small business owners to quickly earn exceptional travel rewards through spending on their cards. Starwood and American Express have enjoyed a strong cobranded card partnership since 1996, when American Express first launched the ITT Sheraton ClubMiles Card.

Credit Card Benefits Eligibility Requirements:

(1) To be eligible to receive 10,000 bonus Starpoints, you must make your first purchase with the Starwood Preferred Guest Credit Card within one year of Card approval. Bonus Points will appear on your Starwood Preferred Guest statement 8-12 weeks after your first purchase. Bonus Starpoints are for first-time Starwood Preferred Guest Credit Cardmembers only. You may have more than one Starwood Preferred Guest account, however, if you have or had any such account you are not eligible to receive bonus Starpoints you may be offered for any other such account.

(2) You will receive one additional Starpoint for each U.S. dollar of Eligible Spending charged on your Card Account at Starwood branded hotels and resorts then participating in the Starwood Preferred Guest loyalty program, and at stand-along retail establishments and on-line stores that, in each case, are wholly-owned by Starwood Hotels and resorts Worldwide, Inc.

(3) OPEN Savings(SM): Payment must be made with an American Express Business Card. Savings will be credited to your American Express Business Card billing statement. All savings referenced are in addition to any offers made by participating companies. Participation and offers are subject to change without notice. Terms and conditions apply.

(4) A 5,000 Starpoint bonus is based on airlines with a 1 Starpoint to 1 mile conversion rate; equivalent bonus will be awarded in accordance with other airline conversion rates.

All rights reserved. Article may be reprinted as long as the content remains intact and unchanged and all links remain active.

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Introduction
It has long been the position in the English legal system that trusts can only be one of two types, namely: private or charitable. However, there now exists a creature of statute which introduces a third type of trust called a purpose trust.

A purpose trust is a trust which does not have any beneficiaries and exists for a specific purpose. A purpose trust for charitable purposes would not be valid under the act. Purpose legislation exists in jurisdictions such as Liechtenstein, Cyprus, Cook Islands, British Virgin Islands, Nevis, Turks and Caicos Islands, Antigua and the Cayman Islands. Jersey and the Isle of Man introduced purpose trust legislation in 1996. The formation given below relates specifically to Isle of Man purpose trusts formed under the Isle of Man Purpose Trusts Act 1996.

Purpose trusts are not trusts in the true sense and are designed to be used as adjuncts to taxation planning structures in various ways.

How it works
A purpose trust is formed as a result of a deed of trust between a settlor and a trustee or trustees. To be enforceable the trust document must clearly define the purposes of the trust so that a court may determine these purposes.

There must be two or more trustees, at least one of whom must be a person in one of the categories specified in the act.

To enforce the trust there must be an Enforcer'. The Enforcer oversees the actions of the trustee to ensure that those actions further the purposes stated in the trust documents. The trust instrument must provide for the Enforcer to have an absolute right of access to any information or document which relates to the trust, the assets of the trust or to the administration of the trust.

The trust instrument must specify the event which causes the trust to terminate and must provide for the disposition of surplus assets of the trust upon its termination.

A purpose trust cannot have any beneficiaries, so all assets in the trust must ultimately be paid out towards the purposes of the trust, as set out in the trust document.

The designated trustee must keep a copy of the trust deed, a register and trust accounts. These accounts are open to inspection by the Attorney General but are not available for public inspection.

The trust deed and the purpose
Much care has to be taken in drafting the trust instrument particularly with regard to the purpose. There are differences in the laws of other jurisdictions which have to be taken into account if a trust is to be established. Bermuda Law, for instance, now requires a substantive purpose beyond the mere holding of shares.

The trust deed document will set out the duties of the trustee or trustees and the enforcer.

The enforcer
The role of the enforcer is to oversee the trustees to ensure that the trust is administered in order to satisfy the purpose for which it was established.
An enforcer can be a corporate entity as can the trustees. There is nothing to prevent one being the subsidiary of the other.

The enforcer may not be a trustee of the trust, nor may he profit from the trust.

Provisions exist in the law for the registration or removal of the enforcer.

Should the enforcer die or become incapable, the Attorney General may apply to the court to appoint a successor.

Uses
Off balance sheet transactions
Where, for example, restrictive covenants have been entered into preventing a particular individual or company investing in certain areas, or companies, the investments may now be held within a purpose trust. Because there are no beneficiaries to the purpose trust, a link cannot be established between the investor and the investment. If the trust were set up with a short life, then the assets would revert to the settlor on termination.

Corporate finance/asset financing
Purpose trusts can be used to segregate investment funds or asset ownership within a subsidiary (as security from the lender) from group risk.

This is clearly an acceptable form of asset protection. It is becoming common in ship and aircraft finance/construction and in leasing transactions. In all of these cases the trust ends when the loan is satisfied, while in the interim the lender/financiers' cash flow is protected. The lender is further protected because the ownership of the subsidiary cannot change until the trust is terminated.

Division of voting and economic benefit
It is sometimes necessary to demonstrate that control' is not vested in a particular entity. Different classes of shares in a company can be created with voting control being in the hands of one party and dividend rights in the hands of another. Thus voting shares may be placed in a purpose trust and the remaining shares held by the party seeking the economic benefit.

Ownership of trust companies
Some settlors of conventional trusts have concerns that control could be transferred to trustees over which a settlor has no influence. A purpose trust established to own a family trust company will usually overcome this difficulty. It enables the trustee to carry out its duties independently and gives assurance to the settlor that the board of directors of the trust company can be changed at any time by the shareholders i.e. the purpose trust. Another advantage is that on the death of the settlor the shares of the trust company are outside the settlor's estate and will therefore not pass to heirs who might otherwise control the trust company in a way not intended by the settlor.

Securitisation
Many structures creating international securitisation which in the past have used a charitable trust can now be set up using a purpose trust.

Social Benefits
A trust may have social, though not charitable, objects. For instance, a trust could be set up to benefit an area of outstanding beauty and to provide funds for its maintenance.

Investment in family companies
Much has been written about the difficulty of trustees of a non-purpose trust holding shares in family companies where the economic purpose is poor. If instead a purpose trust were put in place with the purpose of investing in Smith family companies' the trustees would have no need to be concerned that their actions could be criticised.

Acceptance
International recognition must be considered. Will the courts of the jurisdictions of the situs of the trust property, of the domicile and residence of the settlor and beneficiaries, and any other relevant jurisdictions recognise the purpose trust as a valid trust? Those states which have ratified the Hague Convention on trusts have undertaken to recognise trusts for a specified purpose'.

Taxation
A taxable event occurs on the termination of the trust if the assets revert to the settlor. There may also be tax implications of the initial transfer of assets into the trust.

While the assets are under ownership of the trustees of a purpose trust the taxation will at least be neutral. In the case of assets which can physically be removed to the Isle of Man, the taxation can be seriously mitigated and, in some circumstances, possibly eliminated altogether.

Summary
The purpose trust has several significant advantages over conventional trusts in certain situations. An important factor is that there is a clearly defined trust deed and strong modern legislation supporting the structure.

Certain changes must be reported to the authorities. The records of the trusts may be inspected by the Attorney General (Isle of Man) and there is a much more visible and comprehensible regulatory framework.

The role of the enforcer is a key feature.

Its use in segregating assets, in dealing with fixed term events like loan replacement, and in providing a layer of confidentiality and its flexibility make it a valuable tax planning tool for the 21st century.

Thursday, February 13, 2014

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One of the most important duties of a business owner is to solve problems. Some of these obstacles will be more critical than others, and prioritizing problems properly might be as important as formulating business solutions. Identifying problem areas accurately in the first place can also make the entire process more productive. No matter how successfully problems are identified and prioritized, the final test will require that they be solved in a timely and effective manner. But problem-finding, prioritizing and solving each have an important role in reducing the potential negative impact of business finance problems.

Of course some business owners might choose to employ the "putting out fires" strategy. With this approach there will not be a perceived need to identify and prioritize problems. Instead there will be a reactive action taken to each problem (the "fire") as it appears on the scene. Because there are fewer hands to do everything in smaller businesses, this haphazard method of tackling problems tends to be seen more regularly in a small business environment. However, as larger companies continue to go through one downsizing round after another, this practice is gradually creeping into the forefront in more business situations because of fewer and fewer employees to handle everything. While this might represent problem-solving in its least favorable light, it might also turn out to be what the majority of companies are forced to do by default.

Just as each manager probably has a different tolerance for risk, there are many different ways to approach problems. Ultimately it can be viewed as a test of how to manage resources that include both time and money. Creativity can play an important role because the old solutions are frequently not the best solutions. Creative approaches to problem solving can also help to minimize the impact of time and cost constraints. Business creativity can be especially helpful in rapidly-changing circumstances which produce new problems requiring new solutions.

Finding the problem areas is probably an under-rated management function. This particular task takes on a new level of importance when the external and internal environments are both changing in ways that are not familiar to even the most experienced managers. The bad news is that is precisely the chaotic kind of financial and economic circumstances which seem to be impacting most industries currently. Does that mean that many problems are now unsolvable because of what might appear to be unforeseen changes?

The most candid answer is a qualified "Probably not", although it should be acknowledged that a "moving target" is likely to be more difficult to hit than a stationary one. Companies will increasingly need to consider a wider range of alternative problem-solving strategies as the challenges become more complex and unpredictable. Even the appearance of unpredictability should not dissuade managers and business owners from continually searching for a better solution. Peter Drucker once observed that "The best way to predict the future is to plan it" because he felt that effective business planning could overcome even the unknown elements that will impact businesses in the future. With this mindset, the management goal would change from "putting out fires" to anticipating the fires and avoiding the fires.

Wednesday, February 12, 2014

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The kalman filter is a time series estimation algorithm that is mainly used combined with maximum likelihood approach to estimate parameters for given data. Compared with pure maximum likelihood, which typically assumes that the data series is observed without errors, and obtains the state variables by inversion, Kalman filter assumes that all data is observed with measurement errors, which is one of the big reasons why it becomes more and more popular in economics and finance, as many models in these fields depend on data that are either non-observable, for example, bond prices are observable but interest rates are not; energy future prices are easily observed but underlying assets are not, etc.; or subject to noise, such as due to bid-ask spreads.

There are two basic equations of a Kalman filter: the measurement equation and the transition equation, as the names suggest, the measurement equation relates an unobserved variable (such as interest rates) to an observable variable (such as bond prices), and the transition equation allows the unobserved variable to change over time, for example, interest rates follow a Cox Ingersoll Ross (CIR) process. Essentially Kalman filter is a recursive algorithm, it starts with initial values for the state variables and a measure of the certainty of the guess, and then use these initial values to predict the value of the measurement equation, since the variables in the measurement equation are observed, we can calculate the prediction error, together with a kalman gain factor, to update the values in the transition equation, repeat the process for the next time period and finally we are able to estimate the parameters values by maximum likelihood.

The following steps outline the specific procedures of a kalman filter example:

Step 1: writing down the measurement equation and transition equation, initializing the state vector;

Step 2: forecasting the measurement equation given the initial values;

Step 3: updating the inference about the state vector incorporating kalman gain matrix and the prediction error;

Step 4: forecasting the state vector of the next time period conditioning on the updated values of the previous period;

Step 5: calculating the log-likelihood function under a certain distribution assumption and maximize the log-likelihood, usually a Gaussian distribution is applied.

For a detailed Kalman Filter tutorial case please visit Kalman-filter example.

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

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Unless you are cash rich, you would look to leverage on a housing loan to purchase a home. Getting an approval for a housing is never a certainty. There are many situations where home buyers can have their applications rejected outright by the mortgage lender. When that happens, a lender may inform you of the reasons why your application had been declined or not even give you service call to inform you of their decision.

These are some common reasons that housing loan request are declined by the mortgage lender.

1) Being a guarantor for a relative's loan

One of the most common reason that terms your personal financial position as over leveraged is by signing as a guarantor for another individual's loan. There are many reasons for this to happen. It could be that you nephew needs a guarantor for an education loan, your spouse included you as a guarantor for an auto loan, your dad needed you as a guarantor for a recent investment property loan, etc.

At the point of signing on, it is normal to think that these circumstances will not affect you in any way. But it can have a great effect on your loan applications in future, including your housing loan. Unless you have a high personal income, obtaining attractive housing loan terms can be frustrating.

A mortgage loan is a very significant personal financial commitment, the mortgage lender will be concerned with your personal financial leverage when assessing your application. And because you are a guarantor for other loans, those can be taken into consideration when calculating your personal debt ration. A higher ration can deem your personal financial leverage as undesirable.

2) Negligent on material information

Our personal finances are very private information. As wealth is a symbol of social status, many people may be a little embarrassed about revealing the full details of their current financial position, especially if they perceive their personal credit record as one that is adverse. However do note that a mortgage broker or a mortgage officer is there to help you obtain your desired mortgage. It is their job and they will be delighted to be able to acquire a deal for you that you will be happy with.

Because of the nature of their job scope, they have seen a number of applications and have experience on what to look out for in your application. So when you are probed on personal financial information, be open in sharing them so that an officer will know the best course of action to help you obtain an approval for your housing loan.

Do not think that some information requested is not important. Unless you are the mortgage underwriter, you will have little idea on the assessment criteria required. When possible issues are raised by your mortgage officer, you can get them resolved before processing your application. Working on adverse issues only after your housing loan has been declined may be too late.

3) Outstanding arrears and credit card bills

Because a housing loan is a secured loan, you may be complacent on thinking that it is one of the easiest forms of loans that you can get. You may even think that you personal credit record is of little importance since the mortgage lender should feel save since there is a valuable collateral involved.

That is not the case. Your personal credit record can have great effects on how flexible a mortgage lender is willing to be with you. This is especially so when you are a new customer to the lender. They have not dealt with you before and the only way to fairly judge your financial behavior is to assess your credit record. When it shows that your current auto loan and credit card bills are late by 3 months, it does not reflect nicely on how well you manage your finances. You can be penalized with an outright rejection or offered more unfavorable terms because of the additional risks put on the lender. Always ensure prompt payments on your personal credit facilities at least 6 months before your housing loan application.

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Other than just a sport, golfing has now turned a hobby for many. The interest for golf has increased over the few years as it not considered as an expensive game now. Since golf carts are an inevitable factor for any golfer as it helps in carrying them and their golf equipments from one hole to another easily, the idea of buying an expensive golf cart kept many of them away from golfing. But with golf cart leasing option, you can save on the heavy expense on buying a brand new cart or renting a cart every day. Most of the good models would go between 00 and 000. So, buying a new cart was considered a feasible expense for many. In that case, the idea of golf cart leasing is highly beneficial for people. You can now lease any type of carts without the need for buying them. Choose from the electric cart or the gas powered cart, whichever you like the most. When considering the fuel expense and pollution of gas powered carts, electric carts that run on batteries are being used for short drive.

If you are planning to lease a golf cart, then here are some benefits of leasing the cart. You can lease the cart from a dealer or from the golf facilities that take it as a big business. Since the servicing and maintenance requirements also come under the leases, the dealers are pretty more interested in leasing their carts. And remember, in most cases the carts that come with some issues are mostly given for lease. So, you should know that if you are using a cart for the short run, leasing would be economically advantageous, but if you wish to use it for a long run and a variety of purposes other than during golfing, then it is more viable to purchase a new cart that can run for more longer without much problem. If you are looking for cart leasing for affordable rates, then you can try the off seasonal leases that could provide carts at much lesser rates.

Operating lease and conditional leases are two different types of leases. There are also two lease programs to choose from, the Fair Market Value Lease program and the Fixed Purchase Lease Option.

Wednesday, February 5, 2014

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Today leasing is very popular. Instead of buying your car, you can lease it. When the lease expires, you return the old car to the dealer and you can lease a newer model. One reason that leasing is so popular is that a smaller amount of money is required up front and monthly payments are low. This is a very appealing concept to many people.

We lease houses, mobile homes, apartments and even the things inside them. People lease steamers for drapes and carpet cleaners and floor polishers to keep their floors clean as new. If you can't afford to purchase all your appliances and furniture, you can lease them. Some homeowners buy a second house, fix it up and then lease it out to others. This can be particularly profitable if you have your second house at a desirable location, such as the shore or in the mountains.

We also lease things for their entertainment value. For a child's birthday party, parents rent clowns, ponies and magicians for hours at a time. Local pools can be rented for an afternoon, after regular pool hours or a day. Many restaurants offer space to lease for lunches for children. Some movie theatres provide space in the lobby area and special price arrangements for children celebrating their birthdays by going to the movies. For an adult occasion, portions of restaurants and halls can be leased and catering services engaged. Weddings, bat/bar mitzvahs, graduation parties and reunions require leasing many items. Aside from the hall or huge tent at an outdoors event, silverware, linens, tables, chairs and audio visual equipment are leased. A wedding involves a number of leased items, including the church, florist, catering, supplies, DJ, photographer and the groom's and best men's tuxedos.

Steam shovels, cement mixers, trucks, graders, loaders, bulldozers and cranes are just some of the equipment needed when constructing a new building. Because they are not needed once the building is completed, builders lease the machines for the duration of the time they are needed. Another advantage to leasing equipment is that if a piece of equipment breaks down, the builder does not incur any additional costs to repair or replace it. Most leases usually include service, repair, maintenance and replacement of all leased equipment.

Once buildings are completed, the owner will lease out the interior space to help recoup the cost of the building. For this, he or she may lease the services of contractor to build the rented space to the occupant's needs. The occupant, in turn, may decide to lease the equipment needed to run the business. Telephones, fax machines, computers, printers, scanners, and copiers are often leased because the lease contract covers installation, service, instructional classes and upgrades of all equipment. This is essential for companies in the information technology market.

After they are established, businesses might lease a restaurant, museum, symphony hall, zoo or even Sea World to impress their clients. Rooms, tables, chairs, linens, podiums, glassware, catering and audiovisual equipment are leased to meet the client's needs. The lessee needs to do nothing, except show up in the right place at the right time.

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It would be easy to assume that getting approval on a home loan with bad credit is very difficult. Most of us are convinced a stigma still exists because of the sting that comes with having a bad credit rating. But the truth is that there are affordable mortgages available, even to those with bad credit histories, and lenders are happy to accommodate.

Of course, meeting criteria is the essence of any successful loan application. But because credit scores are not part of the criteria, securing mortgage loan approval is easier than thought. The key to success lies in those aspects that are considered a higher priority.

Securing the home loan that is needed can be helped greatly with some simple steps that can be taken in advance. They are the secret to application success, so the effort is well worth it.

Financial Status: Know Your Strengths and Weaknesses

When seeking a home loan with bad credit, it is important to know the strengths and weaknesses of your financial status. The simple fact is that your credit rating directly affects the interest rate charged, so knowing the rating and how it was reached can help in devising an application strategy.

Lenders do not have a limit on the number of mortgage loan approvals to grant. For a start, the more money they lend, the greater their profits can be. The most important criteria set out by lenders is proof of an ability to repay, but any signs of credit rating improvement have a very positive effect on an application too.

Credit reports can be secured from one of the three credit agencies (Experian, TransUnion and Equifax). It is possible to have the score reviewed if there is an issue with it. This can result in an improvement in the score, which in turn can improve the terms of the home loan. Scores can also be improved by clearing some or all of the existing debt, usually through a consolidation loan.

Find the Best Mortgage Deals

The range of options open to those seeking home loans with bad credit is quite extensive, thanks mainly to the growth of the online lending sector. Traditional lenders are known to be the least affordable option as they charge higher interest rates, but they also have stricter terms and penalty structures too.

The world of the Internet offers far better terms, and with comparison sites, the task of locating the best deals is made much easier, requiring less time. Online lenders usually ignore credit scores, and specialize in lending to bad credit borrowers, so mortgage loan approval is easier too.

But this is not to say that there are no risks involved in borrowing from an online lender. Unscrupulous lenders do operate there, and it is important to check out any prospective lending option with the BBB website before agreeing any home loan deal.

Provide a Large Down Payments

One of the key elements of any mortgage deal is the down payment. As a significant sum, it not only secures the property but also reduces the size of the required mortgage sum. And when the required sum is less, the chances of securing a home loan with bad credit is improved too.

For example, if a house is worth 0,000 and the typical down payment rate of 5% of the purchase price is paid, then it is necessary to get a mortgage of 7,500. But if a 20% down payment were made, then 0,000 must be borrowed. And mortgage loan approval is more likely on 0,000 than 7,500.

But while the home loan sum is a key consideration, lenders are also impressed by lenders who display the financial discipline required to save such a large amount. It tells them that the applicant is serious and will be committed to repaying the debt.

Tuesday, February 4, 2014

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If you happen to get extremely lucky, finding the right deal on a car loan sometimes can just sort of come together. It is almost like the Universe were helping you out: you see a commercial or research a great car online, walk into the dealership, make an offer (which they quickly accept), and then, you get a great deal on financing. An hour or two later, you are driving home in your new car with a smile on your face.

However, for most of us, landing a great deal on a car loan is not nearly that easy. The more common story that people tell is haggling with the dealer over the right price for an hour or more. Then, they spend more time negotiating with the financing department to get a good deal on a car. In the end, they leave the dealership without getting the offer they were looking for - or maybe no offer at all.

If the second situation sounds the more familiar of the two, you may have a less-than-perfect credit score. Having a bad credit score makes it harder for anyone to qualify for a car loan. Fortunately, there are ways to get qualified through a bad credit special finance car loan.

If you are looking for a bad credit special finance car loan in order to get the car of your dreams, here are 5 tips for getting funded faster:

1. Understand what bad credit special finance car loans are:

Start your journey to faster funding by learning about what a special finance car loan is. These are loans offered specifically by bad credit auto lenders. They are special because they are designed to work specifically with people in your credit situation.

2. Locate the websites of at least 5 bad credit special finance lenders:

Now that you know what lenders to look for, search for and locate the websites of these special lenders. Look for "bad credit car loans" and similar search terms in order to get your list started.

3. Evaluate each lender and look for the 3 signs of credibility:

Now, go through the website of each lender. What you should be looking for at this point is signs that they are going to be credible lenders. These are: a. they list out what other customers say about them, b. they give you the opportunity to pre-qualify, and c. they have active partnerships with auto dealers.

4. Pull your free credit report and fix any misreported items:

Now, if you are a U.S. citizen, pull your annual free credit reports. You can get one each per year from TransUnion, Equifax and Experian. Go through them like a good detective would, and make notes on anything suspicious or incorrect. If you find anything, get these errors corrected.

5. Follow through with submitting applications to at least 3 lenders:

Now, choose the top 3 most credible looking lenders and apply to all of them. You may get one, two or three offers. You will then be in the position to compare rates. Hint: ask for a pre-approval letter and walk it into the dealership in order to purchase the car of your dreams.

Take these 5 tips for getting a bad credit special finance loan into account in order to get funded faster.

Monday, February 3, 2014

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On the face of it, securing 100% financing on mortgage loans with bad credit seems like a huge stroke of luck. It removes a big part of the headache that comes with buying a home, and everything is much more straightforward and easy to follow.

But while there are certainly advantages, there are also disadvantages, and it is important to weigh these factors up before getting mortgage approval on those terms. What is essential to consider is that the larger the loan the greater the debt, and the higher the percentage mortgage, the larger the loan borrowed.

Calculating the actual consequences of the selection of mortgage loans available is important if the right one is to be secured. And while 100% financing might be perfect for one, it might be too much to handle for others.

Advantages of 100% Financing

There are two principal advantages to getting 100% financing on mortgage loans with bad credit. The first, and most obvious, is that it makes it unnecessary to find alternative sources of funding to raise the down payment. Usually a mortgage lender is willing to provide funding on between 80% and 90% of the purchase price. The remaining share is paid for through a down payment.

However, the task of saving that amount of money - perhaps as much as ,000 - is a big ask. At the very least, it can delay the ability to buy by a year or more. Alternatively, some home buyers secure the balance by taking out a personal loan. Still, getting mortgage approval on 80% of the price is a major investment in its own right.

The second advantage is that private mortgage insurance is not necessary when securing this kind of mortgage loan. This might seem a small issue, but paying this insurance is widely considered a waste of money, with the sum better spent on the home itself.

Disadvantages of 100% Financing

Of course, there are also disadvantages to taking on 100% financing on mortgage loans with bad credit. The most obvious is that the size of the loan is much higher, and thus pushes up the overall debt.

With a 100% loan, the absolute maximum sum needs to be repaid, complete with interest. This can mean an extra ,000 or ,000 over the lifetime of the mortgage. So, when getting mortgage approval on these loans it is important to understand the difference they will make financially.

A second concern is that, when buying a home with a 100% financed mortgage loan, the homeowner starts off with no equity. When a down payment is made, it is independent of the mortgage and, therefore, it is the home equity, which can be used as security to secure financing at a later date.

Which Lenders to Consider

Generally speaking, the best lenders to go to when seeking 100% financing on mortgage loans with bad credit is to sub-prime lenders. This is because they specialize in loans to those in tight spots financially, offering terms that are more affordable.

They are not perfect in every way, however, as their loans come at higher rates of interest than others. But they are more willing to accept the risks involved in lending to applicants with low credit scores. This means that getting mortgage approval is much easier, but there is a higher price to pay.

Their products can be complicated, with adjustable rate mortgages included in the opening 3 or 4 years. Then a 30-year fixed rate mortgage loan begins, which can be more expensive because of the accommodating measures adopted in the adjustable rate mortgage at the start.

Sunday, February 2, 2014

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A bank is not the only source of loans. In fact, in many ways, traditional lending institutions are far from being the best lending sources around. This is especially true when an applicant has a poor credit history. But when seeking a ,000 personal loan with bad credit, what are the alternatives worth going to?

There are several options to consider, but the three most popular are online lenders, family lenders and salary advances from an employer. The truth is that securing loan approval, is more difficult with banks because of their defensive lending policies, designed to protect them from major losses.

But with so many honest borrowers affected badly by the economic crisis, a poor credit rating is no longer an accurate reflection on risk. Alternative lenders know this, so are willing to grant personal loans at competitive rates.

Loans From Family Members

Probably the most affordable loan, borrowing from a family member or friend is the most informal and flexible funding option there can be. What is more, the approval chances are extremely high (as long as the family member has the cash to give), and interest is not usually charged. What this means is that getting a ,000 personal loan with bad credit is pretty easy.

An advantage is that if any problems do arise with meeting a repayment schedule, then is it pretty easy to renegotiate the terms. And since the lender knows the applicant extremely well, securing loan approval is only a formality. However, it is always advisable to write the terms down and have the relevant parties sign it, to ensure there is no confusion.

It is very difficult to see where any problems with this source of personal loans can lie but, of course, everything depends on the individual having ,000 lying around to grant as a loan.

Loans From Online Lenders

They already have a reputation for providing unbeatable loan deals, so online lenders are probably the second-best option. Applying for a ,000 personal loan with bad credit is not guaranteed to end in joy, but with competitively low interest rates and flexible repayment schedules, they are more likely to be more affordable than those offered by traditional lenders.

The terms are good because online lenders tend to specialize in loans to bad credit borrowers, so the loan packages are designed to accommodate the challenges the borrowers typically face. And with the structure of these loans suiting bad credit borrowers so well, securing loan approval is much more likely.

Still, there are criteria to meet, with applicants needing to prove their age, citizenship and that they have a reliable source of income. Usually, an applicant needs to have held their full-time job for at least 6 months, and have an active checking account. Then a personal loan can be confidently applied for.

Loans From Employers

A third alternative to approaching traditional lenders, is to go straight to the source of your income. Applying for a ,000 personal loan with bad credit involves convincing the lender that repayments will not be missed. Since repayments come from a monthly salary, borrowing from an employer means the repayments can be deducted from the paycheck, and never be missed.

Basically, this is a form of cash advance, but securing loan approval from an employer usually means a nominal interest rate is charged. This means the monthly repayments are lower than normal, thus saving the borrower money.

But keep in mind that this kind of personal loan is not registered with credit agencies, so a borrower can never see their credit scores improved.

Saturday, February 1, 2014

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There is a general view that getting a 100% financed bad credit mortgage loan is the simplest way to buy your own home. But, just like every other loan, there are pros and cons associated with the option.

What should be kept in mind is that, as far as those with low credit scores are concerned, 100% mortgage loans, with bad credit ratings already factored into the calculations, make buying a home possible despite existing financial difficulties. Getting approval on these loans is not as complicated as many would think, especially with the more accommodating lending policies that have emerged in recent years.

Still, before it is possible to get mortgage loan approval despite bad credit, it is important to look at what the particular pros and cons are, and what the expected terms of such a loan are.

Advantages of a 100% Mortgage

The normal way to buy a home is to pay a down payment, and borrow the remaining amount in a mortgage, perhaps 80% of 90% of the actual property value. One advantage of getting a 100% financed bad credit mortgage loan is that no down payment is required.

This may seem counter productive, since the mortgage sum is the maximum value required, making monthly repayments will be higher. But with no down payment required, the borrower does not need to wait to raise the funds to pay the ,000 or ,000 needed. So, the deal can be done more quickly.

Getting a 100% mortgage loan with bad credit is not a simple task either, but since the expectation of a down payment, which usually figures in application assessments, is not there, the applicant sees one big worry removed. Of course, displaying the discipline required to save the money can help get mortgage loan approval despite bad credit, but it offers no guarantee.

Disadvantages of a 100% Mortgage

The principal negative to getting a 100% financed bad credit mortgage loan is the size of the debt that is taken on. A home costing 0,000, is going to come with a heavy monthly repayment, even over 30 years. Reducing that by even 10% through a down payment would mean savings of 0 or 0 per month.

There is also a question over the value of home equity when a 100% mortgage loan with bad credit is used to buy the property. Remember that by borrowing 100% of the required sum, all of the home is effective owned by the mortgage lender. However, an 80% mortgage would mean 20% equity is in the possession of the borrower.

Also, the repayment structure of this kind of mortgage is more complicated. Often, borrowers will face an adjustable interest rate for the first few years, which will then go up. Of course, a fixed rate is easier to budget for.

So, mortgage loan approval, despite bad credit, on 100% of the purchase price is not always perfect.

Key Terms of a 100% Mortgage

As tempting as it is to believe that a 100% financed bad credit mortgage loan is the simple answer to your problems, they can prove extremely expensive. The fact is that with bad credit a factor, the interest rate will be quite high, so unless some wisdom is applied in the calculations, just keeping up with repayments on the 100% mortgage loan with bad credit could be a debilitating debt.

What is more, sub prime lenders are the experts that handle bad credit borrowers in debts of this nature, and they are famed for their higher rates and fees. However, when seeking mortgage loan approval despite bad credit, at least they make a home purchase possible.

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My family consists of 5 people. I am the youngest. I grew up in a small village outside of Surin. When I was 6 years old my mom left us to go work in Bangkok so I stayed with my dad and my brother and sister. My sister is the oldest one of us, about 5 years older than me, and when she was 12 years old she also had to go to Bangkok to work with my mom. My dad did not stay with us much because he had to go away to find work in other places. He stayed with us when it was time to farm the rice but otherwise he was working in sugar plantations in Suphan Buri. Most of the time it was just me and my brother but we had relatives living close who helped us with food and to look after us.

In the rice farming season the older students at school had to help to farm the rice for the school. I started helping when I was about 10 years old. The school I went to taught students up to the age of 12. When my brother was living with me he did everything to help me but when he was 13 years old, I was 11, he had to go away for work and I didn't hear anything from him or about him for a very long time. At this time I stayed with my aunt who lives in the same village but when my dad was home I stayed with him. All this time I only saw my mother maybe 1 time every year and I did not understand why she had to go away and leave us.

When I was 12 years old and finished school my mom came to get me to go to work with her in Bangkok. I didn't want to go. I wanted to continue to go to school and I could not understand why she wouldn't let me. I later found out that my dad likes to play cards and had lost a lot of money and land doing so. He had borrowed money from people using our land titles as security but could not pay them back so they took the land. My mom wanted to pay of the loans on some of our land, so we would at least have something, but needed me to help working to get the money to do so. For Thai people it is important to have some land to pass on to your kids. So when I was 12 I went with my mom to work in the textile industry in Bangkok.

When I first came to Bangkok my feeling was that I hated the city. I wanted to go to school and did not want to be here! I started to work 7.30 am and work until 9 pm every day but Sunday. Sometimes we had to work Sundays also. I was working producing fabrics for the textile factory. It was hard work and I hated it! We didn't even go out to eat because they gave us food inside the factory. I remember thinking "where is the sun" because I never saw it.

After 1 year my sister had to go back to Surin to marry a guy that my aunt had found for her. My sister had never met the guy before and she was very upset to marry someone she did not love, but she had to do it. My sister and the guy divorced after 1.5 years but had one baby together. After that my sister came back to work in Bangkok again.

After I had worked in the factory for one year I tried to go back to school at the same time as I was working. I went every Sunday and I had a lot of friends and I liked it a lot! When I had been in Bangkok for about 2 years I had friends and my feeling was that I now loved Bangkok. I heard that a lot of my friends back in Surin had gotten married and had kids and had gotten divorced already. My feeling was that coming to Bangkok had changed the way I looked on many things and that I had learned a lot of things I would not have learned in Surin. When I look on my friends who had families early I think that if I would have stayed in Surin my life would have been the same as theirs. This is one of the reasons why I love Bangkok.

Friday, January 31, 2014

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Ever since the rise of rock and roll, some of the best underground music has also been some of the most shocking when performed live. In fact, many of the most distinctive underground music performers became true pop stars on the strength of their shocking live performances.

From Alice Cooper to Insane Clown Posse, the overall world of pop has been full of some jaw-dropping stage shows. Here are some of the most outrageous performers who have come out of underground music worlds.

Alice Cooper: Cooper was one of the original shock-rockers, whose wild ways would go on to influence underground music followers as diverse as metal bands and horror rap acts like Insane Clown Posse. Cooper's been hanged onstage, danced with monsters, and been tormented by freaky, sexy nurses. And he's still up to it in his 60s!

Marilyn Manson: Though he started in underground music scenes, Manson gained total fame -- and infamy -- based on his shows. Live Manson concerts involve simulated nudity, profanity galore, and even subverted fascist imagery. Although it provokes knee-jerk reactions, critical thinking reveals deeper meaning behind the shock.

Rammstein: This German underground music favorite doesn't try to apply too much intellectualism to its live show, but it still aims to shock. Their performance fascinations are particularly sexual, full of simulated sodomy and other taboo perversions.

When they're not freaking out the squares with that, they're lighting their instruments on fire, soaking themselves in fake blood, or crowd-surfing in inflatable rafts.

Esham: This Detroit rapper is one of the founders of horror rap, though he doesn't get much credit for this outside of the area's underground music circles. Esham would later be cited as a major influence by later acts like Insane Clown Posse. His own brand of horror rap often blended rock beats with rhymes.

At the same time, he also performed his horror rap with a rock and roll type stage show. For much of his early career in underground music, he flirted openly with Satanic imagery, like so many horror rap artists would do after him. At the time, though, the mere existence of horror rap was shocking, as was Esham's favored unabashedly psychedelic onstage atmosphere and lyrical content.

Insane Clown Posse: Following in Esham's footsteps, Insane Clown Posse took up horror rap ideas with glee. Following with their favored album theme of the "Dark Carnival" mythology, Insane Clown Posse shows have featured murderous clowns, freak shows, and, usually, oceans of Faygo soda. It gets sprayed, shot from waterguns, poured from buckets, or just drop-kicked, bottle and all.

Thursday, January 30, 2014

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The bond market is having a tough start to the year as the Barclays Capital Aggregate Total Return Bond Index (the ETF AGG is a tracker for this index) closed down 0.12% for the first quarter of the year. This is the first negative quarterly return since 2006. The bond market has been in a multi-decade long bull market, with record low interest rates and a stock market that has seen some of the worst drawdowns in history. Over its 37-year history, the BarCap index has produced an average annual return of 7.86%, which is very good. Over that time, it has had only two negative years, in 1994 and 1999.

The main reason for the negative first quarter return is that rates have moved up slightly as investors are becoming more comfortable again with equities, and have been reducing their exposure to bonds in favor of stocks. Many investors bought lower yielding treasures for safety purposes, but if rates rise they will see their value drop. The 20-plus year treasuries, in particular, will drop pretty hard. Investors need to watch their bond holdings closely. Emerging market, high yield and convertible bonds should produce much better returns than treasuries over the long term. Stay nimble and pay close attention to what the Fed says going forward. Any statement by the Fed that rates may move higher will send the longer term treasuries plummeting.

We have been reading and hearing a lot about Bitcoin lately. Bitcoin is a four-year-old digital currency. It's designed to allow worldwide payments with extremely low processing costs. It's basically online money, virtual tokens that can be exchanged for goods and services at places that accept it. It is transferred over a peer-to-peer (P2P) network. Some say it is going to revolutionize global finance. I'm not sure if that will happen, but it is a very interesting concept. When you write your friend a check, money from your account is withdrawn from your bank, and then transferred to her bank, and then she withdraws it as cash (maybe). With Bitcoin, there are no middlemen (other than the users that comprise the network itself). Money goes straight from you to whomever you transfer it to through the Bitcoin P2P network, with no intermediary agency passing along the chips.

There are not yet a lot of places that accept Bitcoins, but there some advantages to using it. There are no middlemen or transaction fees. You can exchange a Bitcoin for real currency. As of right now, a Bitcoin is worth from 5 to as high as 7 in overnight trading. This all sounds wild, doesn't it? But if you think about what has been going on in Cyprus, the average citizen with deposits at their banks might have been better off with Bitcoins.